Why the super-rich are abadoning the property market

In the quarter ended September 2026, asking prices of apartments contracted the most in Kiambu, Ngong, Mlolongo and Ruaka. [Courtesy]

Prices of apartments in Kiambu, Ngong, and Ruaka cooled off in the third quarter of the year, resulting in a drop in the amount of rent charged during the period.

The latest HassConsult index shows this cooling off compounded into the annual drop in asking price, which was highest in Ruaka at negative 4.6 per cent.

This is followed by Ongata Rongai (-4.3 per cent), Kiambu (-3.4 per cent), Ngong (-2.7 per cent) and Athi River (-2.7 per cent).

In the quarter ended September 2026, asking prices of apartments contracted the most in Kiambu (-1.2 per cent), followed by Ngong (-0.5 per cent), Mlolongo (-0.3 per cent) and Ruaka (-0.2 per cent).

Of these satellite towns that recorded a drop in asking prices of apartments, Mlolongo is the only one that had a positive deviation in rent prices in the period.

Rent prices in Kiambu contracted by 0.6 per cent, Ngong by 2.0 per cent and Ruaka by 2.7 per cent.

However, Mlolongo, whose sale prices contracted by 0.3 per cent in the quarter, recorded a positive growth in rents by 0.4 per cent.

According to the index by the property developer, the city’s residential suburbs recorded their strongest quarterly property-price appreciation in four years during the third quarter of 2026.

The acceleration, it says, was concentrated in established neighbourhoods, where limited housing supply and improving financial conditions are providing a more supportive environment for price growth.

Average suburban property asking prices increased by 2.3 per cent to Sh33.9 million during the quarter, compared with 0.9 per cent in the preceding quarter, marking the highest quarterly appreciation since September 2022.

The index shows houses in established suburbs led the increase, with Spring Valley recording the highest quarterly appreciation at 6.8 per cent to an average asking price of Sh 79.4 million, followed by Westlands at 5.9 per cent to Sh64.5 million and Muthaiga at 5.5 per cent to Sh118.1 million.

Karen and Loresho each recorded growth of 5.2 per cent, with average house asking prices reaching Sh119.3 million and Sh86 million, respectively.

“The stronger performance comes against a backdrop of lower borrowing costs and improving credit conditions,” the developer says.

According to the Central Bank of Kenya, average commercial bank lending rates declined from 17.2 per cent in November 2024 to 14.4 per cent in September 2026, while annual private-sector credit growth reached 10.6 per cent in September.

HassConsult Co-Chief Executive and Creative Director Sakina Hassanali says lower borrowing costs and stronger private-sector credit growth are creating a more supportive environment for property investment.

“In Nairobi's established suburbs, where the supply of houses remains relatively constrained, improving financial conditions may be adding to upward price pressure, contributing to the stronger appreciation recorded during the quarter,” she said.

The rental market reflected similar strength, the developer adds in the index, with suburban rental asking prices rising by 2.7 per cent, compared with 1.4 per cent in the previous quarter, approaching their strongest quarterly growth in three years.

Rental appreciation was particularly pronounced in established northern suburbs, led by Loresho, where average monthly house rents increased 6.2 per cent to Sh338,100, followed by Kitisuru at 5.1 per cent to Sh350,100, Muthaiga at 4.5 per cent to Sh370,900 and Gigiri at 3.9 per cent to Sh402,100.

“The concentration of rental growth in Nairobi's established diplomatic and international residential neighbourhoods is significant. The expansion of United Nations operations and the gradual relocation of personnel to Nairobi are providing an additional source of demand in these locations, alongside the city's wider professional and domestic rental market,” added Ms Hassanali.

In contrast, satellite-town property asking prices declined by 0.6 per cent to an average of Sh14.4 million for the second consecutive quarter, while rental asking-price growth slowed to 0.4 per cent from 1.1 per cent in the previous quarter.

Among satellite towns, Ngong recorded a 1.2 per cent quarterly decline in average (all houses) asking prices to Sh19.1 million, followed by Ongata Rongai, where prices fell by one per cent to Sh15.4 million, and Juja, which recorded a 0.6 per cent decline to Sh12.8 million.

Kitengela also registered a 0.5 per cent decline to Sh13.2 million.

“The contrasting performance reflects differences in housing supply, purchasing capacity and the characteristics of demand across Nairobi's residential markets,” the developer explains.

“While constrained supply is supporting pricing in established suburbs, satellite towns remain more sensitive to affordability and competing housing options.”