The soda defence: How government is selling Kenya's economic recovery

CS Treasurery John Mbadi

As the adage goes, a drowning man will clutch at a straw. In much the same way, government officials have repeatedly clung to the soft drinks analogy in an attempt to defend the state of Kenya’s economy.

When other arguments are challenged for being based on flawed premises, the soft-drinks comparison appears to be their go-to defence, one they present with an expectation of applause.

The Cabinet Secretary for Treasury John Mbadi is the latest to invoke this analogy, repeatedly arguing that Kenyans should applaud the government for pulling the economy back from the brink of collapse.

Back in 2024, when the market was awash with businesses issuing closure notices or downsizing due to a tough economic environment, this argument of increased soft drink production was tabled by President William Ruto’s Chief Economic Advisor, David Ndii.

“T&C is an #UpperDeckPeopleke business. That is why its flagship outlet is in Lavington. And as I have told you, the debt binge economy will shrink. Soft drink business, a bell weather indicator for mwananchi economy, is up by 18 per cent year to August. #BottomUpsEconomics is working,” said Ndii in a tweet.

Ndii’s tweet was in reference to a notice issued by manufacturing company Tile & Carpet Centre of plans to downsize its workers starting December 2024, citing harsh business environment alongside a reduced demand and high operational costs.

CS Mbadi has also peddled the same argument, insisting the increase in the amount of soft drink production as presented by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) is a clear sign that the economy is doing well for the common mwananchi.

And most importantly, it is a sign the policies by President Ruto’s administration are working.

“For you to consume more soda, no one will leave his children hungry at home - unless you are mentally challenged or you have a problem - to leave your children with no food, then go to the shopping centre to buy a soda,” he said on Thursday.

A week before, the CS had presented the same argument during a press briefing at his offices, as he defended the government saying President Ruto is being fought on tribal grounds and not economic policies that are openly fruitful.

“If it is about the economy, we should be celebrated. Some of us should be given awards, because we have removed Kenya from where it was almost tipping,” he said.

“Soft drink consumption has gone up. Do you know what that tells you? Who takes sodas? People take sodas when there is a little bit more in their pockets.”

For reasons better known to the country’s chief economist, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, real wages and food inflation figures, which are among the official indices of how well a country is doing economically, do not paint a clearer picture.

Yet this soft drink argument is not believable to the common mwananchi.

“Why do you think the consumption of soft drinks increases in June, July and August? I think it is because we have a lot of school activities in the second term,” argued one tweep, referencing on KNBS Leading Economic Indicators for June which shows an increase of soft drink production in the month to have hit 61.2 million litres from 54.2 million litres recorded in May.

The data shows soft drink production in 2025 stood at 703.7 million litres compared to 671.1 million litres in 2024, which was also an improvement from 580.5 million in 2023.

There are already signs that annual production this year will be higher than 2025, with the data set showing only one month, March, when production was lower compared to the same period last year.

But is the economy doing well or just on a sugar high? What are the signs that mwananchi is part of the larger economic growth?

“It is a mixed bag,” says the head of research at Capital A Investment Bank, Churchill Ogutu, on the status of the economy.

Ogutu says there are metrics, such as GDP which stood at 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of the year compared to 4.9 per cent in the same period in 2025, that testify of the economy’s growth.

Inflation is the other index and it has not spiked above the 7.5 per cent upper limit despite the US-Iran war that has affected fuel supply.

“But now when you get into the weeds, in terms of disposable income, ultimately people are comparing saying ‘I don’t have money this year’,” he said during an interview with Spice FM.

Ogutu says while there is an increase in production, the demand side should also be considered as this determines how people spend their money.

“The biggest driver of economic activity and what speaks to the person on the ground, is private consumption. And we have seen the growth of private consumption going lower from around 12 per cent in 2021/2022 to eight or nine percent. That means even the consumption power is not as strong as it was before,” he said.

Ogutu adds that a look at wages, a significant index, they are not growing as fast as they used to. This has eroded disposable income.

“Because of that, yes, the economy is growing but ideally, it should be growing at a faster rate but people are not spending more, and that is why income is not as high as it used to be,” he points out.

Soft drinks make up part of the inflation figures, falling under food and non-alcoholic beverages. KNBS Consumer Price Index (CPI) holds that food items contribute a significant portion of the monthly inflation figures.

“The price increase was primarily driven by a rise in prices of items in the Food and non-alcoholic beverages (9 per cent); transport (15.6 per cent) and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (3.2 per cent) over the one-year period,” says KNBS in the July CPI that placed inflation at 6.5 per cent.

But increased soft drink consumption may not necessarily be a sign of a better economic condition for the low income Kenyan, but a strategy by beverage manufacturers to sustain sales amid a tough economic environment.

Due to higher inflation, beverage companies, just like other businesses, have come up with different ways to increase consumption. These include promotions and targeting the ‘kadogo’ economy.