How rising costs put dairy businesses in Trans Nzoia under pressure

Drought and rising feed costs are squeezing Trans Nzoia’s dairy farmers, cutting milk production and incomes. [Courtesy]

It is a hive of activity at a dairy farm in Kiminini Sub-County, Trans Nzoia County. Farmhands move about the compound, milking the cows, feeding the herd and washing down the cowshed, while others load cans of fresh milk for delivery to various selling centres.

Ordinarily, it is a familiar scene on a busy dairy farm, one that suggests everything is running as usual.

Yet beneath the bustle of daily dairy operations, a more worrying reality is unfolding on this farm, which has been in operation for more than 20 years. The signs of a worsening climate crisis are showing up not only in the maize fields, but also in the milk cans. 

The family is based in Trans Nzoia County, a region long celebrated as Kenya’s food basket, particularly for its maize production. But this year, the maize harvest has been drastically affected, leaving the family facing a double blow.

John Kimani says they grow maize not only for grain but also to feed their dairy cows. With the crop failing, they are now struggling to secure both food for the household and enough fodder for the herd.

“The decline in milk production began about two years ago, but this year has been the most difficult. It began with the loss of our maize crop to prolonged drought, after the rains stopped unusually early, leaving the young crops to wither and dry up,” he says.

He was speaking during a media tour organised by the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications AfriCenter (ISAAA) under the auspices of the Africa Science Dialogue.

The production from the family’s 23 dairy cows has plunged from more than 700 litres a day to an average of just 460 litres, and the decline is showing no sign of stopping. The family is increasingly worried about where the situation is headed. Even the maize they managed to harvest is of poor quality, further affecting milk production.

For a family that once produced enough maize to make its own livestock feed, the situation has now forced them to source feed elsewhere. The cost of travelling across the country in search of maize for fodder has also become increasingly expensive.

Kimani says they have been forced to raise their milk prices to cover some of the additional costs.

“Normally, we sell milk at Sh60 per litre, but we are now selling it at Sh80 per litre to our various customers, including hotels and schools in Kitale and beyond,” he says.

For John Muhoho, what began as a problem in the fields has now spread to the dairy, threatening an important source of income and livelihoods.

A dairy farmer and maize grower from Waitaluk in Trans Nzoia, Muhoho has farmed since 1998. But climate change is increasingly taking a toll on his farm, reducing fodder production, milk yields and ultimately, his income.

He relies on nappier grass and maize to feed his six dairy cows. But changing weather patterns have reduced both the quantity and quality of fodder.

“I used to harvest nappier up to six times a year, but now I get four harvests or fewer, with low foliage and poor quality during dry periods. Previously, the feed could last a whole year, but now what we get cannot even last six months,” he says.

The shortage has contributed to a sharp decline in milk production. Before the drought, his six cows produced about 180 litres a day. Today, production has fallen to around 80 litres.

At the same time, the cost of concentrates has increased, further squeezing his earnings, with expenses taking up to about 80 per cent.

Muhoho wants government support to make irrigation equipment affordable for small-scale farmers, to enable them to grow fodder throughout the year. He also calls for intervention to stabilise feed prices.

Farmers are now being forced to ration the feed they give their livestock as they struggle with rising costs.

They also say the price of dairy meal has increased from about Sh2,500 to around Sh3,000, putting further pressure on their already strained operations.

Research Scientist and Director of the Biotechnology Research Institute at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation (KALRO), Muguga, Dr Martin Mwirigi, says the experiences of farmers facing crop failure are heart-breaking, with changing weather patterns increasingly disrupting agricultural production.

He says this means farmers need access to biotechnologies, such as genetically modified organisms (GMOs), that can help improve their resilience.

“These biotechnologies can help farmers cope with changing weather patterns, particularly the prolonged droughts we are experiencing. They can also improve crops’ tolerance to these conditions,” he says.

At Kalro, Dr Mwirigi says they have developed maize varieties that are drought-tolerant; among them is Ukamez, which has been designed to mature as early as possible.

He notes that climate change is also associated with the emergence and spread of pests and diseases, such as the fall armyworm, which emerged in 2015.

“As weather patterns change, different organisms, including insects and viruses, can become more prevalent,” he says.

He adds that the emergence and spread of weeds are also becoming a growing challenge for farmers.

Dr Mwirigi advises that climate change will continue to evolve in the coming years. Farmers therefore need more adaptable crops and technologies that can help them build resilience and address the challenges they face.

At former military chief Daudi Tonje’s Rimo Enterprises Ltd, the effects of climate change are palpable.

General Manager at Rimo Enterprises Ltd, Irene Keitany, says 2026 has been a difficult year for the farm, with production declining by more than 40 per cent compared to previous years.

She attributes the decline to reduced rainfall, which affected maize production and left farmers struggling with inadequate inputs and lower yields.

“The reduced output has affected the farm’s income, leaving less money to invest in the next planting season, including the purchase of seeds, fertiliser and other farm inputs,” Irene says.

Edwin Mumbwani, who is in charge of livestock at the Rimo farm, says the impact has been particularly severe on dairy production.

“Milk production has fallen from about 300 litres to as low as 40 litres a day because we no longer have enough feed to sustain the herd,” Mumbwani.

He says the farm has been forced to sell some of its cows to reduce the number of animals it has to feed with the limited fodder available.

At the same time, the reduced maize harvest has increased the cost of producing livestock feed.

Kaguo Mwangi, from the Association of Kenya Feed Manufacturers (Akefema), says animal feed is a critical issue in Kenya. The country requires about 55 million metric tonnes of animal feed annually, but it is only able to produce about 40 per cent of that requirement.

This leaves a deficit of about 60 per cent, which contributes to the high cost of animal feeds. The cost is ultimately passed on to farmers.

In most cases, grain millers outcompete feed manufacturers. About 70 per cent of manufactured animal feeds comes from grains.

“The challenge is that the grains we use for feed are also used for human food. Therefore, feed manufacturers have to compete with grain millers for the same raw materials,” Mwangi notes.

He adds that they have benchmarked with feed industries in South Africa, North Africa and the United States and found that genetically modified (GMO) grain is widely used for animal feed in these markets.

However, they cannot access it in Kenya because of ongoing litigation surrounding its use.

“The problem is ultimately transmitted to farmers. They are unable to access affordable feed that can enable them to run their enterprises efficiently and profitably,” he says.

Mwangi further notes that the high cost of animal feeds is forcing livestock enterprises to close down. “Our internal analysis found that about seven to 10 per cent of livestock enterprises in dairy, poultry and pig production are closing down.”

He says Kenya needs to identify alternative raw materials that can help reduce the cost of animal feeds.