Can ODM hold Nairobi after Sifuna's exit and Raila's death?

Linda Mwananchi Party launch in Lavington, Nairobi on October 30, 2026. [Stafford Ondego, Standard] 

The Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) first major rally in Nairobi since the death of its party leader Raila Odinga will be more than a show of political strength. It will be an opportunity for the current leadership to demonstrate that the party remains a formidable force and is not a pale shadow of its former self.

The rally will test whether ODM can retain its grip on the capital, contain internal divisions over its relationship with President William Ruto and remain a significant player in the 2027 elections.

For a party whose political fortunes were built around Raila’s formidable personality, nationwide networks and enduring influence in Nairobi, surviving his death is proving more complicated than simply finding a successor.

The departure of the Edwin Sifuna-led faction, which has rallied under the Linda Mwananchi banner, has exposed the extent of ODM’s internal divisions and opened a contest over who controls the political constituency Raila spent decades cultivating.

As the Oburu Oginga-led faction prepares to take its campaign to the capital, the question is whether it can convince supporters that ODM remains a formidable political vehicle or whether Nairobi is slipping away to its former members and rival opposition formations.

The stakes go beyond filling rally grounds. They extend to parliamentary and county seats, control of Luo Nyanza and Western Kenya, and ODM’s bargaining power in President Ruto’s re-election campaign.

The Jacaranda Grounds gathering comes at a particularly difficult moment for the party. ODM is returning to a venue where the Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi movement held a major rally on September 13, drawing thousands of supporters and turning the grounds into a platform for opposition politics.

ODM’s choice of the same venue is seen by analysts as a calculated attempt to reclaim political territory and challenge the perception that its former secretary-general and his allies have taken control of the city’s opposition constituency.

In recent weeks, the party has also been mobilising across Nairobi’s 17 constituencies to demonstrate that its grassroots structures remain intact.

However, the size of Saturday’s crowd may not necessarily settle the question of who commands Nairobi, political analysts argue.

Political analyst Daniel Juma cautions against using attendance at political rallies as a measure of popularity, arguing that Nairobi’s political gatherings routinely attract people who are not necessarily committed supporters of the organisers.

"In Nairobi, Linda Mwananchi, ODM, UDA, those rallies will always have a crowd," he says.

"People can attend those rallies. Some of them may not be members of that particular faction. Anybody can pull rallies. It's very easy for anyone to pull rallies."

Nevertheless, Juma believes ODM would be making a political mistake by remaining inactive as Linda Mwananchi aggressively establishes itself.

"It is good for ODM to do that so that they can also demonstrate that they are still in play. Because if they do not, then they will be ceding ground," he told The Saturday Standard.

"Right now, Linda is also very aggressive. They are coming very aggressively. But they shouldn't cede ground. Because if they cede ground, that ground is gone."

The rally will also be significant because Oburu, who has been largely absent from public political engagements during his recovery, is expected to address supporters through a live link from his Nairobi home.

His return to the party’s political conversation comes as he faces the challenge of holding together competing interests within ODM.

The struggle for ODM’s future has increasingly become a contest over who can legitimately claim Raila’s political inheritance.

The first anniversary of his death on October 15 exposed divisions that the party could hardly conceal. Migwena Cultural and Sports Grounds in Bondo, which should have been a unifying venue to celebrate the former Prime Minister’s life, instead became a stage for competing political loyalties.

The absence of several ODM officials provided the Linda Mwananchi camp with an opportunity to demonstrate its political connections.

Those who attended included Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and opposition leaders, including Kalonzo Musyoka.

Sifuna received enthusiastic chants from sections of the crowd, while slogans demanding President Ruto’s departure and the familiar 'wantam' refrain further underscored the growing opposition sentiment among some of Raila’s supporters.

While Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi insisted that Nyanza remained an ODM stronghold and that Ruto had delivered development to the region, Sifuna and his allies used the occasion to argue that Raila’s legacy was about defending citizens and challenging the government.

Prof Gitile Naituli, a political analyst, believes the damage caused by the departure of Sifuna and his allies could be much greater than the ODM leadership is willing to acknowledge.

He estimates that the party could have been reduced to a fraction of its former strength, arguing that the departure of the faction has taken away a substantial section of its support base.

"I doubt that it's even 25 per cent. Never will be around 15 per cent of the former ODM," he believes.

Naituli is pessimistic about the party’s electoral prospects, predicting that it could struggle to secure even five per cent of the national vote.

Juma, however, sees a more complicated contest. He argues that the initial excitement surrounding a new political movement does not necessarily translate into permanent political allegiance.

He points to the enthusiasm displayed by Linda Mwananchi supporters during recent political gatherings, including their chanting of Sifuna’s name while Kalonzo was speaking, as a potential source of friction within the wider opposition.

He says some leaders and supporters within the opposition coalition could eventually become uncomfortable with the dominance of particular personalities, creating opportunities for ODM to recover some of its lost support.

The divisions have also been accompanied by accusations of political intimidation, with some ODM officials facing criticism over alleged attempts to disrupt meetings organised by Sifuna’s faction. The August tour of Homa Bay was particularly contentious.

The latest opinion poll offers another indication of the challenge confronting Oburu’s faction.

An October nationwide party-affiliation survey by Research 8020 placed Linda Mwananchi at 25 per cent, ahead of UDA at 23 per cent. DCP followed at nine per cent, while ODM managed only eight per cent, tying with Wiper.

Jubilee recorded seven per cent, while 16 per cent of respondents remained undecided.

The figures are particularly significant because Linda Mwananchi is a relatively new political formation, yet it has already overtaken the established ODM party in declared affiliation.

However, the poll measures party affiliation, not necessarily voting intentions or the ability of the competing formations to win constituencies.