Reality check: Ruto's plan to inherit Raila Odinga's political empire turning into nightmare

President William Ruto may have to rethink his strategy for winning over the late Raila Odinga’s political strongholds, as shifting alliances and growing opposition activity raise questions about his efforts to consolidate support among Raila’s former supporters.

Ruto and his allies in ODM had hoped to use Raila’s anniversary to rally grassroots support across the country. However, political realignments and signs of resistance have complicated the President’s efforts to build on Raila’s political base.

The President’s allies now face a changing political landscape, with Raila’s family and some of his supporters increasingly willing to challenge the Government’s approach to the former Prime Minister’s legacy.

The Sunday Standard has established that concerns over a potentially hostile reception and the prospect of a political contest with Linda Mwananchi leaders unsettled Ruto’s camp ahead of the anniversary events.

The changing dynamics in Nyanza have placed Raila’s family at the centre of a fresh political dispute, prompting a backlash from some of Ruto’s allies and raising questions about the Government’s strategy in the region.

In the days surrounding the anniversary, the President’s allies attacked Raila’s family, blamed former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and criticised Linda Mwananchi leaders amid debate over Ruto’s absence from the main commemoration.

Meanwhile, questions have emerged about whether the political messaging and promises that have underpinned Ruto’s outreach in the region are gaining traction among voters who supported the late ODM leader.

Political observers say a combination of miscalculations, changing alliances and competing political agendas has complicated Ruto’s efforts to consolidate support in Nyanza and among Raila’s former supporters.

The dispute has also sharpened the rhetoric from some government allies, with personal attacks against Raila’s widow, Ida Odinga, emerging alongside criticism of the opposition and its attempts to organise around the former Prime Minister’s legacy.

A senior ODM official blamed the party’s handling of the anniversary for the muted response to Ruto’s political messaging.

“ODM had set up the president for failure from the word go when they attempted to hijack the program from the family in favor of Ruto’s reelection. They had attempted to turn it to be about them and not Raila and that is the reason for the lack of enthusiasm from mourners over Ruto,” the official said.

Ida hit back at the President’s allies, defending her decision to invite opposition leaders who were received with cheers by the crowds.

“Raila belonged to his family, but he also belonged to Kenya, to Africa and to many people whose lives he touched. His legacy is far better than the political disagreements of the moment,” she said.

Opposition leaders address a charged crowd at Migwena Cultural Sports Ground in Bondo during the first anniversary of the late Prime Minister, Raila Odinga. [KMPS]

Her remarks came hours after a section of leaders led by Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi appeared to distance themselves from the family, with Mbadi accusing Ida of misleading Raila’s supporters.

Mbadi said they would no longer follow anyone else from the family, arguing that their love for Raila could not simply be transferred to another person. He was among the leaders who skipped the anniversary.

Ruto’s allies are concerned that the family’s position could push some of Raila’s supporters towards the opposition, opening a new front in the political contest over his legacy.

The anniversary exposed the tensions within the President’s camp, with some of his allies absent from the ceremony and his political messaging struggling to gain traction amid reports of boos and competing chants.

Ruto’s absence from the first anniversary of Raila’s death also raised questions about whether he had deliberately avoided a public confrontation that could have exposed the limits of his political strategy in Nyanza.

With Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s supporters reportedly prepared to drown him out with “one-term” chants, the event risked becoming a public demonstration of resistance to his administration in a region he has been courting ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Sources within the Government said intelligence reports had indicated that the President could face a hostile reception.

They said that, having learnt of the potentially explosive political atmosphere and the decision by Raila’s family to invite some of his fiercest critics, including Sifuna, Gachagua and former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto decided to avoid the possibility of an uncomfortable encounter.

“The President had received intelligence that the huge crowds would chant pro-Sifuna chants while booing him down as he makes his address, and this would drain his massive investments in Nyanza in his efforts to inherit Raila’s constituency. That’s why he avoided the gathering, since it could have turned into a referendum on his leadership and the mounting resistance to his administration,” sources close to State House said.

The Sunday Standard has learnt that the Raila family’s decision to invite opposition leaders was strategic. According to sources, it was intended to provide a platform for Winnie Odinga’s senatorial ambitions in Nairobi while creating an opportunity for the family to shift its political allegiance towards the opposition.

The move reportedly angered allies of the Government within both the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM. After failing to secure control of the anniversary through the party and the State, the sources said, some opted to stay away from the ceremony.

Opposition leaders address a charged crowd at Migwena Cultural Sports Ground in Bondo during the first anniversary of the late Prime Minister, Raila Odinga. [KMPS]

According to the sources, tensions escalated on October 2 when Ida dismissed ODM’s candle-lighting ceremony by announcing the formation of the official Raila Amolo Odinga Memorial National Steering Committee. The committee, chaired by Prof Adams Oloo, was to oversee the international candle-lighting ceremony.

ODM had announced its own month-long programme, dubbed “Mwezi wa Baba”, featuring a nationwide candle-lighting exercise on October 2. The main gathering was scheduled for Uhuru Park, with other events planned at Kisumu Central Square and Mombasa’s Treasury Square.

The programme also included a major rally in Kakamega on October 9, followed by activities in Garissa, the Coast, Kajiado and Turkana, before a major rally in Nairobi on October 31.

The sources said the party had wanted to take charge of Raila’s anniversary to exclude key opposition figures, including Uhuru, Sifuna, Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka, while turning the event into a State function at which Ruto would be the chief guest.

On Thursday, as the anniversary activities continued, Ruto attended a campaign rally in his Rift Valley political stronghold, while other key party leaders, including ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga and National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohammed, skipped the commemoration.

Ruto spent the day traversing Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet counties, where he urged residents to give him a second term to continue implementing his development agenda.

On Friday, Junet accompanied Ruto to West Pokot County and disclosed that he had skipped the anniversary because Raila’s family had invited Gachagua. He said he was unwilling to share a platform with the former Deputy President.

“Jana niliona list ya wale walioalikwa na Mama Ida Odinga, nikaona mtu anaitwa Gachagua. Nikasema, siwezi kukaa mahali pamoja na Gachagua. Pia, spirit ya Baba haiwezi kukaa na Gachagua,” Junet said.

In translation, Junet said he had seen Gachagua’s name on the invitation list and decided he could not sit in the same place as him, adding that Raila’s spirit could not coexist with the former Deputy President.

Opposition leaders address a charged crowd at Migwena Cultural Sports Ground in Bondo during the first anniversary of the late Prime Minister, Raila Odinga. [KMPS]

Remarks by members of Raila’s family during the anniversary also highlighted their criticism of the Government and appeared to signal a shift in political emphasis towards the opposition.

Winnie, for instance, criticised the Government for failing to fulfil Raila’s aspirations for employment, better healthcare and equal treatment for Kenyans regardless of their ethnic backgrounds.

“If Baba Raila Amollo Odinga was here today, if he stood up from the grave and was standing here today and he asked what you have been up to in the year one that have been away what would you tell him? Would we tell him how many positions we negotiated? How many photographs we took? How many times we used his name? or would we show him people whose lives became better because we remembered what he stood for? And I must answer that question too.”

She expressed concern that women in Turkana took their children to hospitals expecting better services and a functioning health insurance system, only to return home and organise harambees to secure their children’s release.

Political analysts said Ruto’s absence may have been a strategy to avoid sharing a platform with opposition leaders, particularly Sifuna. Attending the event could have turned it into a contest over who better represented Raila’s political legacy.

Prof Gitile Naituli said Sifuna’s rise had become a significant factor in the political contest, arguing that the President would have faced a difficult environment had he attended the ceremony.

“Sifuna has proven to be a thorn in the flesh to Ruto, he is able to articulate issues and to respond to Ruto’s political rhetoric with facts and his has followers even in the Nyanza region, if Ruto attended the event, it would have been sa political suicide,” Naituli said.

He argued that Ruto’s political outlook differed from Raila’s and that comparisons between the two leaders during a family-led commemoration could have affected the President’s public image.

“In a family-owned program, Speakers would free to compare the two leaders and this would negatively affect Ruto’s image as a result, the President had to keep himself busy in a political rally,” he said.

The fallout from the anniversary has added another layer to the political contest over Raila’s legacy, with the family, ODM leaders, government allies and opposition figures advancing competing interpretations of what the former Prime Minister stood for.

As the 2027 General Election approaches, the extent to which these competing interests reshape political alliances in Nyanza remains to be seen.