Why Ruto missed Raila's first anniversary

President William Ruto’s absence from the first anniversary of the death of former ODM leader Raila Odinga has raised questions about whether he sought to avoid a public confrontation that could have exposed the vulnerabilities of his political strategy in Nyanza.

With Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s supporters reportedly prepared to drown him out with “one-term” chants, the event risked becoming a public demonstration of opposition to his administration in a region he has been courting as part of his 2027 re-election strategy.

Government sources said Ruto had learnt of the potentially explosive political atmosphere, heightened by the decision of Raila’s family to invite some of his fiercest critics, including Sifuna, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The sources said the President opted to avoid the possibility of an uncomfortable encounter with his political rivals.

“The President had received intelligence that the huge crowds would chant pro-Sifuna slogans while booing him down as he makes his address, and this would drain his massive investments in Nyanza in his efforts to inherit Raila’s constituency and that’s why he avoided the gathering since it could have turned into a referendum on his leadership and the mounting resistance to his administration,” sources close to State House said.

The Saturday Standard has learnt that the Raila family’s decision to invite Opposition leaders was strategic, with the anniversary providing an opportunity to launch Winnie Odinga’s Nairobi senatorial bid while signalling a possible shift in the family’s political allegiance from the government to the Opposition.

The move reportedly unsettled allies of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and sections of ODM who had hoped to influence the organisation of the anniversary. After failing to secure control of the party’s plans and the commemorative event, the allies opted to stay away, according to sources.

Dispute over anniversary programme

Tensions reportedly escalated on October 2 after Ida Odinga moved to establish a separate framework for the commemorations, announcing the Raila Amolo Odinga Memorial National Steering Committee to oversee an international candle-lighting ceremony chaired by Prof Adams Oloo.

ODM had announced its own month-long programme, dubbed “Mwezi wa Baba”, which included a nationwide candle-lighting exercise on October 2. The main gathering was scheduled for Uhuru Park, with other events planned at Kisumu Central Square and Mombasa’s Treasury Square.

The programme also included a rally in Kakamega on October 9, followed by activities in Garissa, the Coast, Kajiado and Turkana, before a major rally in Nairobi on October 31.

Opposition leaders address a charged crowd at Migwena Cultural Sports Ground in Bondo during the first anniversary of the late Prime Minister, Raila Odinga. [KMPS]

According to sources, ODM leaders had wanted the party to take charge of the anniversary to keep key Opposition figures, including Uhuru, Sifuna, Gachagua and Kalonzo, out of the event. They also wanted the commemoration to be treated as a State function, with Ruto as the chief guest.

On Thursday, as anniversary activities continued, Ruto attended political rallies in his Rift Valley strongholds instead. ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga and National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed also skipped the event.

Ruto toured Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet counties, where he urged residents to give him a second term to continue implementing his legacy projects.

On Friday, Junet accompanied Ruto to West Pokot County and explained why he had skipped the anniversary, citing the invitation extended to Gachagua by Ida Odinga.

“Jana niliona list ya wale walioalikwa na Mama Ida Odinga, nikaona mtu anaitwa Gachagua. Nikasema, siwezi kukaa mahali pamoja na Gachagua. Pia, spirit ya Baba haiwezi kukaa na Gachagua,” Junet said.

Junet said he had seen Gachagua’s name on the invitation list and decided he could not sit in the same place as the former Deputy President. He added that Raila’s spirit could not coexist with Gachagua.

Winnie’s criticism of government

Remarks by members of Raila’s family during the anniversary also suggested a shift in their political posture, with criticism of the government providing a potential source of tension between the family and Ruto’s allies.

Winnie, for instance, criticised the government over what she described as its failure to fulfil aspects of her father’s vision, including job creation, better healthcare and equal treatment of Kenyans regardless of their ethnic background.

“If Baba Raila Amollo Odinga was here today, if he stood up from the grave and was standing here today and he asked what you have been up to in the year one that have been away what would you tell him? Would we tell him how many positions we negotiated? How many photographs we took? How many times we used his name? or would we show him people whose lives became better because we remembered what he stood for? And I must answer that question too.”

She added: “Dad had a Kenyan dream. He believed that wherever you were born, whatever your surname, whatever your community, you deserve the opportunity to build a decent life. He had a dream of a better Kenya where Kenyans' efforts bear fruit, but today People have given up hope. It breaks my heart seeing some of you, you went to school you sent applications for jobs, you made follow-ups, you have established businesses, borrowed to sustain them, voted for your preferred leader believed in them, waited but the life stagnated.”

Winnie also raised concerns about women in Turkana who take their children to hospitals expecting better healthcare and functioning health insurance, only to return home and organise fundraisers to secure their children’s release.

“In Western, a sugar farmer expects to be paid in time to pay for his school fees, feed his family and go back to the farm, that was Raila’s dream,” she added.

Sifuna’s rise poses political challenge

Political analysts said Ruto’s absence could also have been a strategy to avoid sharing a podium with Opposition figures, particularly Sifuna, whose presence might have turned the commemoration into a contest over who best represents Raila’s political legacy.

Prof Gitile Naituli said Sifuna’s rise had unsettled the President and presented a challenge to his political messaging.

“Sifuna has proven to be a thorn in the flesh to Ruto, he is able to articulate issues and to respond to Ruto’s political rhetoric with facts and his has followers even in the Nyanza region, if Ruto attended the event, it would have been sa political suicide,” Naituli said.

He said Ruto’s political philosophy differed from Raila’s, arguing that the President did not represent the ideals the former Prime Minister had championed.

“In a family-owned program, Speakers would free to compare the two leaders and this would negatively affect Ruto’s image as a result, the President had to keep himself busy in a political rally,” he said.