The Mt Kenya one-term lottery

Mount Kenya and its diaspora are long reputed for their strict accountability demand for its elected representatives, but even this has a flip side, or sides.

Next year will be the time to watch again if Tetu constituency in Nyeri retained it's reputation for having never reelected an MP since it was created in 1988.

From 1992 when Kenya returned to multiparty democracy, the region has also gained the reputation for a huge turnover of elected leaders.

Parliamentary veterans in Mt Kenya average three terms at most, and even those are rare and wide.

It could have been worse had the yellow fever that brought in United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and William Ruto not greased the roll over of many Mt Kenya incumbent MPs who, from 2017, aligned themselves with the then Deputy President to the consternation of his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta.

"The fact that Uhuru allowed Ruto to micromanage the Jubilee primaries in 2017 was the saving grace that prevented a parliamentary bloodbath in 2022," said a Jubilee national official who remembers when initial party botched primaries saw a reelection-worried Uhuru delegate Ruto to manage the exercise.

The 2017 elections themselves saw several veterans' and incumbents' terms cut short or ambitions for upgraded offices frustrated and many never forgave Ruto for the loss at the Jubilee primaries.

They included Peter Kenneth, who lost to Mike Sonko for the Nairobi gubernatorial ticket; Jamleck Kamau, who failed to dislodge incumbent Mwangi wa Iria for a similar ticket in Murang'a; Wangui Ngirici, who had lost the gubernatorial primary to Anne Waiguru in Kirinyaga; and Dennis Waweru, who lost a ticket bid to recapture Dagoretti South Constituency.

Ms Mary Wambui also lost the parliamentary ticket to Gichuki Mugambi in Othaya while a bitter showdown in the Meru woman rep primary ended with incumbent Florence Kajuju bagging the ticket against Kawira Mwangaza, who immediately went independent and proceeded to win the race proper.

More fancied politicians would again lose the 2022 races to UDA newcomers, especially where they remained in Jubilee.

Those included second term Mp Kanini Kega (Kieni) who was narrowly defeated by Njoroge Wainaina as did fourth term Mp Maoka Maore (Igembe North) to teacher unionist Julius Taitumu.

The yellow fever also indirectly sent packing fourth-term veteran, the Embu senator Njeru Ndwiga, and dramatically ended the interrupted six-term run by Meru governor Kiraitu Murungi, then the longest-serving Mt Kenya leader.

 Ford Asili wave

The most punishing wave in Mt Kenya however, remains the 1992 Ford Asili wave that almost catapulted Kenneth Matiba to State House.

By all indications, it remains Mt Kenya's most shocking political bloodbath.

Kamau Icharia, Gachuru wa Karenge, Mary Wanjiru, Kamuiru Gitau, Kiruhi Kimondo, Julius Njuguna Njoroge, Abraham Mutere, Macharia Muraya are names that today hardly ring a bell even in Mt Kenya.

They were among the first wave of beneficiaries of the lethal mass voting formula that Mt Kenya has adopted since the return of multiparty politics in1992.

School teacher Icharia had won the Kiambaa parliamentary seat, beating, among others, the incumbent and wealthy businessman Njenga Karume, who had aligned with Mwai Kibaki's Democratic Party.

In larger Gatundu, a newcomer, Kamuiru Gitau, had surprised, among others, the Kenyatta family scion Ngengi Muigai and incumbent Zachariah Gakunju while Stephen Ndicho, a little-known Thika publisher initially interested in a councillor's seat, beat, among others, another Kenyatta family insider and Moi era minister George Muhoho in Juja.

Mary Wanjiru was elected in Kinangop, beating, among others, the eloquent veteran Kimani Wanyoike, Njoroge in Makuyu, Karenge in Kandara, Mwaura Kirore in Kigumo, Mburu Wanyoike in Gatanga, while in Mwea, the new Ford-Asili MP was Newton Nderitu.

Kiruhi Kimondo became the MP for Starehe, Chris Kamuyu retained Dagoretti, Abraham Mutere was a newcomer in Makadara, Macharia Muraya in Mathare in Henry Ruhiu in Embakasi.  

There were also new MPs in Nakuru town (Lwali Oyondi - brother of party Secretary General Martin Shikuku), Molo (Njenga Mungai) and Subukia (Joseph Kimani).

Of the over 20 MPs that Matiba had got in larger Mt Kenya in his 31 parliamentary group, just under five had any political name recognition.

Other than former vice president Dr Josephat in Githunguri and John Michuki in Kangema, Chris Kamuyu and Kiruhi Kimondo had transitioned from serving their first term under the old one-party establishment. Nthenge was an independence era veteran who had been out in the cold for long.

It was  at this time that Michuki's bitter opponent in Kangema and Kanu Secretary  General Joseph Kamotho quipped that: "Even a dog could have been elected on a Ford Asili ticket."

Few in the Ford-Asili group would ever see parliament again.

The DP zones in Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, and Laikipia had also voted along almost similar lines with the only difference being Kibaki's Muthaiga club buddies comfortably reclaimed their seats. Also, some of the newcomers such as Ndwiga in Runyenjees and later Manyatta (Embu), Kiraitu (South Imenti), Daudi Mwiraria (Imenti North), Benjamin Ndubai (Tigania West), Maore and Martha Karua in Gichugu (Kirinyaga) would go on to serve several elective terms. And some of them too had established reform credentials before their parliamentary debut.

But DP also produced some forgettable single-termers such as Kinyua Mbui in Ndia, Njoka Mutani in Nithi, and Cicilio Murango Mwenda in Tharaka.

With Matiba out of contention in 1997 and the region raring to wave for Kibaki, very few Ford Asili lottery winners in 1992 were able to quickly adjust their sails, and almost all but the veteran Michuki, architect George Nyanja in Limuru, Ndicho in Juja and Njehu Gatabaki, who had replaced Dr Karanja (who died in 1993), were cast aside.

Ndicho, running on Charity  Ngilu's Social Democratic Party, had won alongside party mates David Murathe in Gatanga, Moses Mwihia in Gatundu South and Patrick Muiruri in Gatundu North.

All the others apart from Muiruri would serve that as their first and last terms.

Newcomers in Murang'a in 1997 included Joshua Toro (Kandara) who served two terms and single-termers Ngenye Kariuki (Kiharu), Njakwe Maina (Mathioya) and Kamande Mwangi (Maragua).

Mwangi would surprise many with a comeback under The National Alliance (TNA) in 2013 but go on to lose in 2017 to Mary Wamaua.

City barometer

In the period between Matiba exiting the political scene and the 2022 elections, Mt Kenya-leaning parliamentary seats in Nairobi have produced a large turnover of one-termers.

They provide a good barometer of just how competitive elective seats are in the absence of political waves.

Those include names such as Adolf Isaac Muchiri,  Elizabeth Ongoro, William Omondi, John Njoroge Chege, Mercy Gakuya and Ronald Karauri in Kasarani.

Starehe moved from Kimondo to Steve Mwangi (byelection), Maina Kamanda, to Margaret Wanjiru, Charles Njagua and Amos Mwago.

Only Kamanda served more than one term.

Makadara moved from Mutere to Paul Mugeke, then Reuben Ndolo, Dick Wathika to Gideon Mbuvi (two termers) before 1997 boundary changes and demographics placed it under the realm of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

In the same period, Kamukunji, after moving from Ford Asili's George Nthenge, showed some generosity to it's Mps giving Norman Nyagah two terms and incumbent Yusuf Hassan four terms so far. Its only one-termer was Simon Mbugua between 2007 and a byelection in 2011.

Daggorreti was equally kind. After electing Kamuyu on Ford Asili in 1997 it settled for Kibaki-leaning Beth Mugo, who went on to serve five terms, including one as Nairobi senator and another under nomination.

Lethal campaigner

A key campaign cog of UDA in 2022, which ended the office terms of many Uhuru-allied incumbents in Mt Kenya, including governors  Nyoro (Kiambu), Francis Kimemia (Nyandarua), Lee Kinyanjui (Nakuru) and Nderitu Muriithi (Laikipia) is recognized as the UDA stalwart turned bitter foe  Rigathi Gachagua.

Political scientist, Kanu era cabinet minister and former University of Nairobi's Council chairman Dr Amukowa Anangwe described Gachagua's campaign strategy against stubborn opponents in 2022 as having comprised both "the word and follow through."

Prof Anangwe's reading of why even incumbents with the best development record in 2022 in Mt Kenya could not withstand the UDA wave was that Gachagua visited those areas and ensured he finished off the strong opponents.

Gachagua has lately adopted a similar stand of urging the voters to reject particular incumbents, even calling out by name in public rallies.

While Mt Kenya is known to sneer at its senior leaders micromanaging choices at lower level, no other perceived kingpin, not even Matiba or Uhuru, has ever publicly adopted the campaign stance employed by the Democratic Congress Party (DCP) leader.

Prof Anangwe reckoned that it will be a pipedream for Gachagua to expect DCP winners all over Mt Kenya.

"I expect some survivors to override his wave especially in the Southern Kikuyu region around Nairobi in Kiambu and Murang'a. But even them will have to be aligned with the opposition. UDA ticket will ultimately kill many careers in 2027," said Prof Anangwe.

But he cautions that pundits should not arrogate political reach to former president Uhuru Kenyatta, saying he would have little sway in how the election tide flows.

"Mount Kenya essentially thinks about how choices tie up with its economic fortunes," Prof Anangwe said. "They have scant respect for kings without a crown ."

Former Maragua MP Elias Mbau sees it differently. Dr Mbau is telling Mt Kenya to expect a 1992 Ford-Asili situation with little room for anybody outside to survive.

"To his credit, Gachagua has already created a wave that is so effective that it's unlikely to even give room to other peripheral parties," said Dr Mbau. "As of now, this is more lethal than the yellow fever in 2022."

According to Mbau, DCP's greatest risk is its primaries being turned into an auction for the highest bidder.

"That means that the quality of elected leaders to the august house cannot be predetermined. But possibly brace for the 1992 Ford-Asili scenario."

It is the predicament facing many Mount Kenya incumbents in the delicate balance between hunting with the dogs or running with the foxes next year.