Election euphoria revisited

Kenyans line up for previous by-elction . [AFP]

Kenya has entered another election year period when political temperatures rise and some end up in violence. The media engage people called experts and analysts whose task is to make sense of what may be going on for the public to understand. They are found in universities, think tanks, research outfits, and opinion poll organizations. There are also informal gatherings where participants enjoy shooting the intellectual breeze for no purpose other than pricking their minds in philosophical excursions and then call themselves ‘philosophers’.

 

Since political atmospheres in times of elections are often exciting, the philosophers gathered in big and diverse number to listen to writer Tony Mochama explain his “Sisi Si Sifuna” gibe at “Sisi ni Sifuna” euphoria. The listeners included East Africa’s top political cartoonists, the media/communication savvy, IT specialists, occasional advisors to ministers/government, prominent food scientists warning of imminent maize/food shortage because of drought in the North Rift maize belt, those endowed with business acumen, and assorted professors in different disciplines. They listen, reflect, and chip in.

 

Despite Mochama’s cheeky title, the discussion was on recurring election time euphoria in which Sifuna is symbolic of his political times. Using past observations, Mochama went back to the return of multi politics days in the early 1990s to find another euphoric political moment. It had a charismatic symbol in Kenneth Matiba who could excite and arouse emotions because he was daring at a time when most leaders avoided challenging the government of Daniel arap Moi. It goes back to the anomalies in the 1988 Mlolongo parliamentary and KANU party elections in which ‘returning officers’ declared short lines longer than long lines. Matiba, among those affected in party elections, dramatically resigned from the cabinet instead of waiting to be fired Njonjo style. He then teamed up with Charles Rubia to call for a political rally at the historic Kamkunji ground for July 7, 1990 to explain to the ‘people’ what had gone wrong in the country, something that no one had done before. Although they called off the rally because they were denied permit, and even detained on July 4, three days before July 7, people still showed up at Kamkunji. In the subsequent three day confrontation between the police and the citizens, that became Saba Saba, people showed that they had lost fear of government. That loss of fear eventually catapulted Kenya into multi-party politics in December 1991.

 

There are similarities, Mochama argued, between the Matiba and Sifuna euphoria. Once again, people appear to have lost fear as they confront Presidents William S Ruto, just as they had confronted Moi. The “must go” slogan that Matiba introduced in 1992 is heard again with the stress being “Ruto must go.” In 1992, three leading opposition candidates were Matiba, Jaramogi Oginga, and Mwai Kibaki but only Matiba and Jaramogi seemed to have sense of self entitlement to the presidency because they believed Moi had lost. At present the leading three are Sifuna, Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka but, with Kalonzo almost forgotten, Sifuna and Gachagua are euphoric and feel entitled in the belief that Ruto has lost. Since the issue in 1992 was which of them would replace the losing president, neither Matiba nor Jaramogi would let the other win. Similarly, Sifuna and Rigathi appear unwilling to let anyone else take Ruto’s job.

 

Mochama could be right. The Sifuna-Gachagua euphoria might underestimate Ruto’s political cunning and they both lose the way the Matiba-Jaramogi sense of entitlement underestimated Moi’s political survival instincts; each lost. In the same way that Moi ensured he was declared the winner, irrespective of the how of victory which included rough playing, Ruto appears determined to repeat Moi’s political ‘miracle’ probably by playing an equally rough political game. If that happens, the rivals will blame each other for losing just as Matiba and Jaramogi had done. Thus the Sifuna-Gachagua euphoria faces the Matiba-Jaramogi dilemma.