IMF saw it coming: How global lender predicted Kenya's fuel protests

Protestors block the Nairobi-Namanga road at Kitengela town during the fuel hike demonstrations. [Peterson Githaiga, Standard] 

When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last month that the economic impact of the Middle East war could trigger “social tensions” and fresh unrest across vulnerable African nations, Kenyan officials played down the risk.

On Monday, thousands took to the streets across the country to prove the Fund right. 

Transport operators called mass action after the President William Ruto government raised petrol and diesel prices to record highs, a direct consequence of global oil prices surging past $100 a barrel amid the two-month-old Iran conflict.

The protests paralysed major towns including Nairobi, Kiambu, and Nakuru among others with demonstrators blocking roads and clashing with police. 

The IMF had foreshadowed the unrest. At the African Consultative Group meeting in Washington in April, attended by a Kenyan delegation led by Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and African Caucus Chairman Seedy Keita issued a joint statement warning that the Iran conflict “adds another layer of complexity, with the potential for severe scarring, including from the return of inflation, food shortages, as well as other social tensions.” 

The language was carefully chosen. The Fund has long held that global economic shocks from the Covid 19 pandemic to the Ukraine war can quickly boil over into street protests when governments fail to shield the most vulnerable. In 2022, IMF boss Georgieva warned that Sri Lanka-style uprisings could be replicated elsewhere. 

Kenya proved a test case.  

Protesters gathered along main roads across the country. Police fired tear gas to disperse them.  

The IMF has urged Kenya and other African governments to protect the vulnerable through “targeted, time-bound support.”

Earlier in March, the IMF urged Kenya to bolster its financial buffers against economic spillovers from the Middle East conflict, warning that the escalating crisis poses fresh risks to an economy already grappling with fiscal strains amid stalled negotiations for a new financing programme. 

At the conclusion of a nine-day mission to Nairobi on March 4, an IMF staff team led by Haimanot Teferra said in a statement that discussions with Kenyan authorities would continue. 

The Fund's end-of-mission statement highlighted the need to build resilience to external shocks, "including potential spillovers from developments in the Middle East." 

Kenya relies on the Middle East for the bulk of its fuel imports. 

The country is still scarred by deadly 2024 protests against IMF-backed tax hikes that left more than two dozen dead.  [Brian Ngugi]