Race against time: How Kenya is mapping flood zones ahead of October rains

Kenya is stepping up flood preparations ahead of the October–December rains, with the government relying on new risk maps, county preparedness plans and a national disaster response system to deal with possible flooding.

Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen told senators on Wednesday, September 16, that the government had put in place frameworks to improve preparedness across counties as the country braces for above-normal rainfall.

Murkomen was responding to questions from Senator Hamida Kibwana on drainage master plans, flood-risk maps and emergency preparedness plans.

He said Nairobi has developed a flood resilience master plan worth about Sh47.2 billion, targeting drainage systems, flood-control infrastructure and climate-resilient urban development between 2026 and 2028.

The government has also developed County Multi-Hazard Risk Profiles, known as Hazard Atlases, to guide planning and response at county level.

“On flood-risk mapping, the government has developed County Multi-Hazard Risk Profiles, also known as Hazard Atlases, which inform planning and response at the county level. In addition, basin-specific flood-risk maps have been developed for areas such as the Tana River and Lake Victoria basins,” Murkomen explained.

The measures come after the 2023–24 El Niño rains caused widespread flooding, deaths and displacement across Kenya.

The disaster affected at least 38 of the country's 47 counties, with more than half a million people displaced, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Tana River and Garissa, among the areas badly affected during the 2023–24 floods, are again identified among areas facing flood risks during the coming season.

Murkomen also updated senators on the National Disaster Risk Management Strategy 2025–2030, which he said was launched on June 18, 2025, in partnership with ministries, county governments and development partners.

He said the strategy aligns with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Kenya Vision 2030, the Constitution, the Disaster Risk Management Policy 2017 and the National Climate Change Action Plan.

“The implementation of the strategy is underway and has entered the foundational phase. This phase has focused on institutional coordination, policy integration and resource mobilisation,” he noted.

The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) continues to coordinate disaster preparedness and response at the national level under a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach.

The system brings together National Security Council structures, ministries, departments and agencies, the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), county governments, humanitarian organisations and development partners.

Nairobi is among the areas under pressure because of its exposure to urban flooding. Current assessments put between 22,000 and 25,000 households at risk under a medium scenario, with the figure rising to 100,000 under a worst-case scenario.

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast the October–November–December (OND) season and says its seasonal outlooks are used to guide disaster management and other preparedness measures.

KMD's State of the Climate in Kenya report had projected a possible return of El Niño conditions towards the end of 2026, with the phenomenon potentially increasing rainfall during the OND season and raising flood risks in vulnerable river basins.

The report also cautioned that forecasts made well ahead of the season carry greater uncertainty.